Maine
Biden is projected to receive between 35% and 65% of the vote in Maine. Trump is projected to receive between 26% and 56%.
2020
Updated March 29th, 2020.
Who will win the presidency?
Current snapshot
Biden is projected to win between 220 - 381 electoral college votes. Trump is projected to win between 152 - 313 electoral college votes. In 25000 simulations of the presidential election from the perspective of March 29th, 2020, Biden wins 75% and Trump wins 24%.
Over time
Who will win each state?
Overview
Note that uncertainties at this time are due to a) close races and/or b) few polls. As more polls become available and election day nears, error bars should shrink and the range of reasonable potential outcomes should narrow.
Alabama
Biden is projected to receive between 20% and 53% of the vote in Alabama. Trump is projected to receive between 41% and 74%.
Alaska
Biden is projected to receive between 9% and 60% of the vote in Alaska. Trump is projected to receive between 21% and 73%.
Arizona
Biden is projected to receive between 37% and 57% of the vote in Arizona. Trump is projected to receive between 35% and 55%.
Arkansas
Biden is projected to receive between 6% and 55% of the vote in Arkansas. Trump is projected to receive between 29% and 80%.
California
Biden is projected to receive between 49% and 68% of the vote in California. Trump is projected to receive between 23% and 41%.
Colorado
Biden is projected to receive between 25% and 62% of the vote in Colorado. Trump is projected to receive between 23% and 60%.
Connecticut
Biden is projected to receive between 39% and 66% of the vote in Connecticut. Trump is projected to receive between 22% and 49%.
Delaware
Biden is projected to receive between 32% and 74% of the vote in Delaware. Trump is projected to receive between 15% and 57%.
District of Columbia
Biden is projected to receive between 54% and 94% of the vote in District of Columbia. Trump is projected to receive between 1% and 30%.
Florida
Biden is projected to receive between 38% and 59% of the vote in Florida. Trump is projected to receive between 37% and 57%.
Georgia
Biden is projected to receive between 30% and 56% of the vote in Georgia. Trump is projected to receive between 39% and 64%.
Hawaii
Biden is projected to receive between 29% and 81% of the vote in Hawaii. Trump is projected to receive between 5% and 53%.
Idaho
Biden is projected to receive between 4% and 52% of the vote in Idaho. Trump is projected to receive between 28% and 80%.
Illinois
Biden is projected to receive between 24% and 76% of the vote in Illinois. Trump is projected to receive between 9% and 61%.
Indiana
Biden is projected to receive between 9% and 59% of the vote in Indiana. Trump is projected to receive between 25% and 77%.
Iowa
Biden is projected to receive between 32% and 56% of the vote in Iowa. Trump is projected to receive between 37% and 62%.
Kansas
Biden is projected to receive between 28% and 53% of the vote in Kansas. Trump is projected to receive between 40% and 65%.
Kentucky
Biden is projected to receive between 6% and 54% of the vote in Kentucky. Trump is projected to receive between 30% and 81%.
Louisiana
Biden is projected to receive between 9% and 60% of the vote in Louisiana. Trump is projected to receive between 26% and 77%.
Maryland
Biden is projected to receive between 44% and 77% of the vote in Maryland. Trump is projected to receive between 16% and 49%.
Massachusetts
Biden is projected to receive between 29% and 80% of the vote in Massachusetts. Trump is projected to receive between 7% and 55%.
Michigan
Biden is projected to receive between 37% and 57% of the vote in Michigan. Trump is projected to receive between 33% and 53%.
Minnesota
Biden is projected to receive between 22% and 66% of the vote in Minnesota. Trump is projected to receive between 21% and 65%.
Mississippi
Biden is projected to receive between 22% and 55% of the vote in Mississippi. Trump is projected to receive between 39% and 73%.
Missouri
Biden is projected to receive between 26% and 53% of the vote in Missouri. Trump is projected to receive between 38% and 65%.
Montana
Biden is projected to receive between 14% and 49% of the vote in Montana. Trump is projected to receive between 35% and 72%.
Nebraska
Biden is projected to receive between 7% and 56% of the vote in Nebraska. Trump is projected to receive between 28% and 80%.
Nevada
Biden is projected to receive between 33% and 59% of the vote in Nevada. Trump is projected to receive between 28% and 54%.
New Hampshire
Biden is projected to receive between 37% and 61% of the vote in New Hampshire. Trump is projected to receive between 32% and 56%.
New Jersey
Biden is projected to receive between 38% and 68% of the vote in New Jersey. Trump is projected to receive between 20% and 49%.
New Mexico
Biden is projected to receive between 28% and 66% of the vote in New Mexico. Trump is projected to receive between 25% and 62%.
New York
Biden is projected to receive between 37% and 71% of the vote in New York. Trump is projected to receive between 17% and 51%.
North Carolina
Biden is projected to receive between 38% and 59% of the vote in North Carolina. Trump is projected to receive between 35% and 56%.
North Dakota
Biden is projected to receive between 20% and 50% of the vote in North Dakota. Trump is projected to receive between 44% and 75%.
Ohio
Biden is projected to receive between 36% and 58% of the vote in Ohio. Trump is projected to receive between 35% and 57%.
Oklahoma
Biden is projected to receive between 17% and 46% of the vote in Oklahoma. Trump is projected to receive between 44% and 74%.
Oregon
Biden is projected to receive between 21% and 73% of the vote in Oregon. Trump is projected to receive between 11% and 63%.
Pennsylvania
Biden is projected to receive between 36% and 57% of the vote in Pennsylvania. Trump is projected to receive between 34% and 55%.
Rhode Island
Biden is projected to receive between 23% and 75% of the vote in Rhode Island. Trump is projected to receive between 11% and 61%.
South Carolina
Biden is projected to receive between 28% and 53% of the vote in South Carolina. Trump is projected to receive between 37% and 62%.
South Dakota
Biden is projected to receive between 6% and 54% of the vote in South Dakota. Trump is projected to receive between 30% and 82%.
Tennessee
Biden is projected to receive between 17% and 54% of the vote in Tennessee. Trump is projected to receive between 37% and 75%.
Texas
Biden is projected to receive between 35% and 54% of the vote in Texas. Trump is projected to receive between 37% and 57%.
Utah
Biden is projected to receive between 18% and 45% of the vote in Utah. Trump is projected to receive between 33% and 61%.
Vermont
Biden is projected to receive between 25% and 78% of the vote in Vermont. Trump is projected to receive between 5% and 54%.
Virginia
Biden is projected to receive between 37% and 63% of the vote in Virginia. Trump is projected to receive between 28% and 53%.
Washington
Biden is projected to receive between 39% and 68% of the vote in Washington. Trump is projected to receive between 21% and 50%.
West Virginia
Biden is projected to receive between 9% and 48% of the vote in West Virginia. Trump is projected to receive between 41% and 82%.
Wisconsin
Biden is projected to receive between 37% and 57% of the vote in Wisconsin. Trump is projected to receive between 35% and 55%.
Wyoming
Biden is projected to receive between 2% and 46% of the vote in Wyoming. Trump is projected to receive between 36% and 85%.
